Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Global has maintained Ghana’s sovereign credit rating at B-/B with a stable outlook, but warned that mounting fiscal pressures and challenges around debt refinancing could put the country’s rating under pressure over the next 12 to 18 months.
The ratings agency said Ghana’s ability to refinance maturing debt would be a key factor in determining whether the current rating can be sustained, particularly if fiscal slippages or higher-than-expected debt-service costs emerge.
S&P identified potential deterioration in the financial performance of the Bank of Ghana (BoG) and the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) as additional risks to the country’s fiscal and credit profile.
The agency said the central bank’s financial position had been weakened by the government’s strategy of rapidly building foreign exchange reserves through gold exports, which it said would require significant recapitalisation.
It also expects the fiscal costs associated with GoldBod to remain elevated.
For investors, S&P said Ghana’s credit position would also remain exposed to developments in the country’s external sector, particularly movements in the prices of gold, cocoa and oil.
A deterioration in terms of trade or export volumes, it warned, could increase Ghana’s external financing requirements and external indebtedness, potentially putting downward pressure on the sovereign rating.
S&P nevertheless maintained the B-/B rating, placing Ghana in the speculative or non-investment-grade category, while affirming its B- transfer and convertibility assessment.
The agency attributed the stable outlook partly to stronger external metrics resulting from the expansion of Ghana’s gold sector and the economy’s resilience to the effects of the conflict in the Middle East.
It also pointed to progress on fiscal reforms, anchored by a new 36-month, unfunded policy coordination instrument with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
However, S&P said further reforms in public financial management would be necessary, particularly given Ghana’s still-high debt-servicing costs and sizable contingent liabilities associated with state-owned enterprises and the central bank.
The agency also identified Ghana’s debt restructuring process as a potential source of risk.
Although not part of its base-case scenario, S&P said it could lower Ghana’s rating if the restructuring process stalls because creditors disagree over comparability-of-treatment principles or the terms under the G20 Common Framework.
S&P upgraded Ghana’s sovereign rating from CCC+/C to B-/B in November 2025, citing stronger export performance, rising foreign reserves and improved fiscal discipline following the country’s 2022 debt crisis.
The latest assessment keeps the rating unchanged but signals that Ghana’s fiscal position, debt-refinancing capacity, central bank finances and GoldBod-related costs will remain important considerations for investors and creditors.
S&P said the rating could be lowered over the next 12 to 18 months if fiscal deficits widen, public debt or debt-service costs rise materially above expectations, or external financing pressures increase.
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