Ghana’s economy is poised to exceed its 2025 macroeconomic targets, a new report by IC Research has revealed.
The optimistic forecast comes after a stellar first-half performance, where the government outperformed expectations on several key indicators, including inflation, exchange rate stability, interest rates, and GDP growth.
In its review of the 2025 Mid-Year Budget, IC Research noted that the government’s budget execution over the first six months delivered a “sizable fiscal adjustment” that surpassed both official and the firm’s own projections.
This impressive outcome, the report stated, was fueled by renewed fiscal discipline and a firm control on spending to avoid the accumulation of arrears.
Despite some shortfalls in non-tax and customs revenue, tax revenues remained strong, reinforcing the overall fiscal position.
IC Research believes that this resilience, combined with careful expenditure management, has positioned the government to achieve and potentially exceed its end-of-year macro-fiscal targets.
“All year-end targets were retained, signalling the authorities’ confidence in sustaining the positive momentum,” the report highlighted.
Macroeconomic Stability on the Horizon
IC Research’s confidence is rooted in Ghana’s strong delivery on key macroeconomic indicators. Inflation has eased, the cedi has remained relatively stable against major international currencies, and interest rates have seen a modest decline, reducing the cost of borrowing.
First-quarter GDP growth also surpassed expectations, driven by improvements in the industrial and services sectors. The country’s gross international reserves are at comfortable levels, suggesting a healthier macroeconomic environment compared to the post-2024 uncertainties that had previously clouded investor confidence.
Revenue Challenges Persist
However, the report also highlighted some lingering concerns. Total revenue and grants for the first half of 2025 stood at GH¢99.3 billion, which is 3.2% below the official target. The shortfall was largely due to underperformance in non-tax revenue and customs collections.
Non-tax revenue missed its target by 19.1%, coming in at GH¢10.2 billion, primarily because state agencies collected less than projected.
Customs collections also fell short by 12.7%, a gap IC Research attributed to systemic revenue leakages at key entry points like Tema Port and persistent smuggling across land borders. The government has acknowledged these weaknesses and has outlined measures to close loopholes and curb smuggling.
Energy Sector Levy Shines
Amid the revenue struggles, the Energy Sector Levy Act (ESLA) emerged as a bright spot. IC Research anticipates ESLA inflows will maintain strong momentum in the second half of the year, providing crucial fiscal breathing room and supporting consolidation efforts.
While risks to achieving the 2025 targets remain—including global commodity price fluctuations and potential external shocks—the report praised the government’s proactive approach to identifying and mitigating these risks.
According to IC Research, the combination of solid first-half results, steady macroeconomic fundamentals, and targeted risk management measures has “significantly eased” earlier concerns about Ghana’s near-term fiscal outlook.
With inflation easing and the currency stabilizing, the government appears not only on track to meet but possibly to exceed its 2025 macro targets, marking a significant turnaround from recent economic challenges.
By Leo Nelson
